Round 8, 2020 Predictions

These tips are temporary due to problems with obtaining stats from last round. These tips are predictions made without information from last round. Hopefully these can be corrected for soon!

Winning TeamOpponentDateProbability (%)Margin
Western BulldogsGold Coast23/07/20206913
RichmondGreater Western Sydney24/07/2020551
CarltonNorth Melbourne25/07/2020608
SydneyHawthorn25/07/2020523
Port AdelaideSt Kilda25/07/20207924
EssendonAdelaide26/07/20206616
West CoastCollingwood26/07/2020540
Brisbane LionsMelbourne26/07/20208327
GeelongFremantle27/07/20206614
Predictions for Round 8, 2020.

Round 7, 2020 Predictions

Winning TeamOpponentDateProbability (%)Margin
GeelongCollingwood16/07/2020599
EssendonWestern Bulldogs17/07/2020588
Brisbane LionsGreater Western Sydney18/07/2020501
SydneyGold Coast Suns18/07/20207824
RichmondNorth Melbourne18/07/2020617
Port AdelaideCarlton19/07/20207721
HawthornMelbourne19/07/20207718
West CoastFremantle19/07/20207920
St KildaAdelaide20/07/2020578
Predictions for Round 7, 2020.

Round 6, 2020 Predictions

In this round, I have assigned the home team in my model to the team that last played at the venue. I’ve had to do this since all my features in my linear/logistic model are subtractions of the away teams statistic from the home team. This has led to some strange tips, but let’s go with them…

Winning TeamOpponentDateProbability (%)Margin
GeelongBrisbane Lions09/07/2020543
HawthornCollingwood10/07/2020608
FremantleSt Kilda11/07/2020543
West CoastAdelaide11/07/20208125
MelbourneGold Coast11/07/20207015
EssendonNorth Melbourne11/07/20206310
Port AdelaideGreater Western Sydney12/07/20206713
RichmondSydney12/07/2020625
Western BulldogsCarlton12/07/2020648
Predictions for Round 6, 2020.

Round 5, 2020 Predictions

Winning TeamOpponentDateProbability (%)Margin
CarltonSt Kilda02/07/20206210
CollingwoodEssendon03/07/20207921
West CoastSydney04/07/2020624
GeelongGold Coast04/07/20208736
Western BulldogsNorth Melbourne04/07/20206611
Brisbane LionsPort Adelaide04/07/2020584
FremantleAdelaide05/07/20206413
RichmondMelbourne05/07/20207315
Greater Western SydneyHawthorn05/07/2020503
Predictions for Round 5, 2020.

Round 4, 2020 Predictions

Winning TeamOpponentDateProbability (%)Margin
SydneyWestern Bulldogs25/06/2020565
CollingwoodGreater Western Sydney26/06/2020602
Port AdelaideWest Coast27/06/20207525
RichmondSt Kilda27/06/20207414
EssendonCarlton27/06/20206913
FremantleGold Coast27/06/20205910
Brisbane LionsAdelaide28/06/20208229
GeelongMelbourne28/06/20207119
HawthornNorth Melbourne28/06/20206711
Predictions for Round 4, 2020.

Round 3, 2020 Predictions

Winning TeamOpponentDateProbability (%)Margin
RichmondHawthorn18/06/20208121
Western BulldogsGreater Western Sydney19/06/2020561
North MelbourneSydney20/06/2020679
CollingwoodSt Kilda20/06/20208322
Brisbane LionsWest Coast20/06/20206314
GeelongCarlton20/06/20208530
AdelaideGold Coast21/06/2020606
EssendonMelbourne21/06/20207014
Port AdelaideFremantle21/06/20206714
Predictions for Round 3, 2020.

Round 2, 2020 Predictions

Predictions for Round 2, 2020. Assuming match time is reduced to 80%. No changes to models. Foopy is back! I have been using machine learning to investigate other things which I will post about soon, stay tuned 🙂

Winning TeamOpponentDateProbability (%)Margin
RichmondCollingwood11/06/2020512
GeelongHawthorn12/06/2020609
Brisbane LionsFremantle13/06/20207720
CarltonMelbourne13/06/2020649
Port AdelaideAdelaide13/06/20207626
West CoastGold Coast13/06/20208633
Greater Western SydneyNorth Melbourne14/06/2020629
SydneyEssendon14/06/20206815
Western BulldogsSt Kilda14/06/202053-2
Predictions for Round 2, 2020.

Round 1, 2020 Predictions (v3)

Margin and probability predictions for Round 1, 2020 using a slightly updated model (scaling factor has been added due to a change in time per quarter). Have a peaceful day 🙂

Winning TeamOpponentDateProbability (%)Margin
RichmondCarlton19/03/20208530
Western BulldogsCollingwood20/03/2020532
EssendonFremantle21/03/2020542
AdelaideSydney21/03/202052-1
Port AdelaideGold Coast21/03/20208433
GeelongGreater Western Sydney21/03/2020522
North MelbourneSt Kilda22/03/20207214
HawthornBrisbane Lions22/03/20206611
West CoastMelbourne22/03/20208529
Predictions for Round 1, 2020.