Latest Posts

Comparing Models (Linear, Logistic, SVM)

What’s New? I was invited to join Squiggle, an online AFL ladder where mathematical models are compared using three metrics: correct tips (accuracy of win/loss prediction), margin mean absolute error (accuracy of margin prediction), and bits (accuracy of predicting the correct probability of winning). Essentially, we want to maximise correct tips, minimize margin mean absolute … Continue reading Comparing Models (Linear, Logistic, SVM)

Round 1, 2020 Predictions (v3)

Margin and probability predictions for Round 1, 2020 using a slightly updated model (scaling factor has been added due to a change in time per quarter). Have a peaceful day 🙂


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