Latest Posts

Round 2, 2020 Predictions

Predictions for Round 2, 2020. Assuming match time is reduced to 80%. No changes to models. Foopy is back! I have been using machine learning to investigate other things which I will post about soon, stay tuned 🙂 Winning Team Opponent Date Probability (%) Margin Richmond Collingwood 11/06/2020 51 2 Geelong Hawthorn 12/06/2020 60 9 … Continue reading Round 2, 2020 Predictions

Comparing Models (Linear, Logistic, SVM)

What’s New? I was invited to join Squiggle, an online AFL ladder where mathematical models are compared using three metrics: correct tips (accuracy of win/loss prediction), margin mean absolute error (accuracy of margin prediction), and bits (accuracy of predicting the correct probability of winning). Essentially, we want to maximise correct tips, minimize margin mean absolute … Continue reading Comparing Models (Linear, Logistic, SVM)


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